Bill Lowen has just won his second Bassmaster Elite tournament, on the St. John’s River in Florida.  There is a lot to be learned from this victory.  That good guys do win, that classic fishing methods do work, that fish are thin on the ground in the St. John’s River & that persistence pays.  However, there is a useful statistical lesson as well. On that reflects a mistake that many people make.  On his last day Bill only managed four fish, but he persisted. He stuck to his trusted method.  It’s not a surprise for a guy who’s sometimes known as the turtle for his slow fishing, or who almost always fishes a jig.  It’s a contrast the high speed approach of the KVDs and Wheelers of this world.  Maybe he’d have been better to try another spot. But other anglers were struggling as well.  So persistence paid. It doesn’t always; so how do you know when to perlite and when the change. This is one of the most important and fundamental questions in bass fishing.  So how does statistics help?

Bill won with only 4 fish.  That is about a fish every 2 hours.  That’s not an unusual occurrence in elite level fishing.  How many times do we hear that the five winning fish were the only bits that day? Even with a limit bag that means waiting 96 minutes for a bite! So if you’re fishing the right place with the right method you will still have to wait more than an hour and a half for a bite.  They don’t say anglers need patience for no reason. If you swap to another method you are fishing the wrong method and may never het the right bite.  So often I see anglers swapping methods after 30 minutes, or even five minutes!  But if you are fishing a water where bites (or at least the right bites) only come four or five times a day then you have to stick with the right method.  Of course if your fishing the wrong method it pay to change. The real question is what is the right method? That, of course, is where the real skill comes in.